Download PDF by Patrick Humphreys: Analyzing and Aiding Decision Processes, 14

By Patrick Humphreys

ISBN-10: 0444865225

ISBN-13: 9780444865229

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Extra info for Analyzing and Aiding Decision Processes, 14

Example text

The politically-minded person, alternatively, might suppose that organizational thinking and political game-playing were more important factors in the siting decision. , contract No. 321/7591/RGB 8001. While support for this work is gratefully acknowledged, the views expressed are the authors' own and are not necessarily shared by the sponsor. We wish to thank Patrick Humphreys, Howard Kunreuther, and James Vaupel for helpful commentson earlier drafts. The author's names are listed in alphabetical order.

Underlying the problem of selecting an appropriate format to communicate the results of a risk assessment is the fact that there is no objective risk associated with a novel and complex technology. Beyond the problems of relying on subjective probabilities where no frequentistic data base is available, risk itself is a many-dimensioned concept, with no apparent consensus on how those dimensions should be combined into a (1980) point out, social risk measure. In fact, as von Winterfeldt and RIOS groups may differ in their values and beliefs about technological risks in ways related to more general value orientation.

EVALUATION OF MORTALITY RISKS 31 As shown in Keeney (198Oc), the resulting risk utility function uR must either be the additive form or the multiplicative form where k is a scaling constant. We will now examine further implications on the form of uR given the assumptions above for each of three different objectives: that we want to minimize the expected number of fatalities, that we prefer equitable distributions of risk, and that we wish to avoid catastrophes. As we will see, these desires are mutually inconsistent.

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Analyzing and Aiding Decision Processes, 14 by Patrick Humphreys

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